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Southeast Michigan Council of Governments, "the region's overall forecast is one of steady, moderate growth from 2000-2030. Population will grow 12 percent to 5.4 million by 2030. Households will increase twice as fast, 21 percent over 30 years, as the average number of persons per household declines and all the increase in households will be in households without children. At the community level, Southeast Michigan will grow most strongly at the edges of the urban area, where land is available and jobs are within commuting distance. Household growth will be strongest in western Wayne County, the Ann Arbor area, southeast Livingston County, western and northern Oakland County, and central Macomb County. Population growth will follow the same general pattern, of course. However, because of fewer persons per household and relatively modest amounts of new housing construction, the mature suburbs of Detroit will lose population. Detroit's historic rates of household and population loss have slowed considerably and this will continue."
Sources: Southeast Michigan Council of Governments |
Source: Southeast Michigan Council of Governments
What is a population forecast?
A population forecast is the predicted population for Ann Arbor at a future date -- in this case, 2030.
The Southeast Michigan Council of Governments (SEMCOG) created this Regional Development Forecast (RDF) using a three-step process, taking advantage of all available data inputs: the most recent data from Census 2000, data on jobs from the state employment agency, updates of land availability and planned uses, and local officials' expectations about near-term development and future sewering. After starting with a national econometric model to gauge the total region's future, the RDF uses a second computer model to forecast the future of 247 districts within the seven-county region, and finally uses trends and land availability in a third step to allocate district forecasts to 1,442 traffic analysis zones.
Source: SEMCOG 2030 RDF Executive Summary
How does population affect our environment?
The more people that live in the the region, the more resources are needed to support their presence. However, total population and population growth do not offer an exclusive view of human demographic impact. Population density and distribution are also important. If growth occurs in areas that already contain supporting infrastructure-- for example in the downtown district of Ann Arbor -- this growth is not likely to cause as much environmental impact as growth that occurs along undeveloped stream corridors in less dense areas of town.
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